patching...
Breaking: Eastside Boys Fall in 3A Soccer State Championships »
Welcome back, Patch Blogger!

Experts: Cain's Departure Would Help Gingrich

With with wheels falling off of Herman Cain's campaign amid allegations of an affair, his possible departure could help further fuel Newt Gingrich's surge or help Ron Paul or Rick Perry.

 

Presidential politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum — as evidenced by the constant ebb and flow at the top of the GOP race for the White House.

And nothing creates a vacuum like a serious contender dropping out of the race.

In light of some flops on foreign policies issues, as well as multiple accusations of inappropriate conduct and a new allegation of a protracted extramarital affair, Georgia businessman Herman Cain said Tuesday he is "reassessing" his campaign.

This, of course, is leading to wide speculation that the end of his run may be imminent. So we asked South Carolina political experts to speculate on who stands to benefit the most from Cain's potential departure.

At the top of the list Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, who stands to continue his dominance at the top of the latest polls with Cain's fall.

"As the allegations against Cain mount and he continues to fall in the polls, Newt Gingrich is in the best position to capitalize," said Robert Oldendick, political science professor at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. 

"Gingrich has performed well in recent debates and his campaign has seemed to become more organized and more focus. His endorsement over the week-end by the Manchester Union-Leader has generated some positive coverage and he is emerging as the conservative alternative to a Romney nomination."

Gingrich's rise — from 3 percent in July to 33 percent in November, according to the American Research Group — has coincided strongly with Cain's dip. According to ARG's polling of likely voters over Thanksgiving weekend, Cain's numbers plummeted from 26 percent in October to 10 percent in November.

But there are some who speculate that Gingrich's reputation as an establishment Republican may temper expectations of siphoning off former Cain support.

"Herman Cain is such an unusual candidate," said Danielle Vinson, political science chair at Furman University.  "Some of the folks he's been pulling support from are interested in him because he's an outsider. And Gingrich is not an outsider.

"I imagine at least some of the folks who had been rooting for Cain because he's not Romney will go to Gingrich. Some of the ones who were liking his outsider status may find themselves leaning toward Bachmann or (Rep.) Ron Paul, or even (Gov.) Rick Perry."

Oldendick also mentioned Perry as a possible beneficiary from Cain's fall.
 
"Rick Perry will also benefit some from Cain’s drop in popularity, in that they appeal to many of the same voters. Perry appears to be regaining some of his footing after some stumbles in the debates, and has enough money to compete strongly, at least through South Carolina," Oldendick said.

"Ron Paul will also attract a few of Cain’s supporters — those that are most opposed to 'mainstream' candidates and like Cain’s 'outsider” image."

There are also remain serious questions regarding Gingrich's own personal baggage and history of marital infidelity. Such issues are almost certain to lead to increased scrutiny, Vinson said.

"You're seeing it already in terms of polls I've seen, that Gingrich is not doing as well among women — at least not in South Carolina he's not. Some people have forgotten about a lot of what they knew about him when he was Speaker," Vinson said.

"I imagine as scrutiny turns on him now and his poll numbers take off, people will remember those things. Those personal issues will come back."

Still, Oldendick said, it stands to reason that Gingrich's powerful position as the most conservative alternative to Romney would only be bolstered by the departure of a former frontrunner.

"Overall, it appears that Gingrich will benefit the most from Cain’s decline," he said.

Related Topics: Cain "reassessing", Cain allegations, Cain dropping out, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul

Jackson Baer

8:52 pm on Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Ron Paul is going to win Iowa and then compete for New Hampshire. After than, who knows. He is consistent and honest. I disagree with many parts of his foreign policy but he is fiscally responsible and follows the constitution. I will take that every day.

http://www.whatthehellbook.com/the-book/

Reply

Jose Mora

8:29 am on Thursday, December 1, 2011

I wonder if these are the same "experts" who so authoritatively proclaimed a two-man race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney back in August?

Reply

stanley seigler

11:27 am on Thursday, December 1, 2011

"So we asked South Carolina political experts..."

@Jose Mora "I wonder if these are the same 'experts' who so authoritatively proclaimed..."

well if not the same, cut from the same cloth.."peas in a pod....laurel and hardy..."

what do these expert say about their predicted, "... two-man race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney"

like MSNBC/FOX talking empty heads they are all HEAD (ego) and no body (substance)...

OTOH agree with some of their observations/opines, eg, "Herman Cain is such an unusual candidate" ...

so are they all unusual...hard to imagine anyone of them as president of our great country...well perhaps huntsman...

"where have all the leaders gone...long time passing..."

Reply

Julian Alien

9:17 pm on Thursday, December 1, 2011

Check out Politifacts take on Newt Gingrich’s claim to have balanced the budget.It was rated FALSE.He is still a big fat draft dodging chickenhawk liar and that is all he will ever be.Florida for Ron Paul.

Reply

stanley seigler

12:18 am on Friday, December 2, 2011

@Julian Alien "Check out Politifacts take on Newt Gingrich’s claim..."

"Efforts to contact Gingrich’s top spokesman, Rick Tyler, were unsuccessful...Gingrich was off on both claims concerning the budget...debt increased during Gingrich’s four-year tenure as speaker by more than $800 billion...We [Politifacts] rate Gingrich’s claim False."
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/may/11/newt-gingrich/newt-gingrich-inaccurate-budget-debt-claims-video-/

amazing, unbelievable, how politicians can lie with a straight face...they have to believe we are complete idiots...

even more unbelievable is how many are complete idiots...believe the lies and vote for them...well we really dont have a choice...guess we have to vote for the lesser of two evils...

hope springs...

Reply

Leave a comment